Huang Luyao, Qin Shuqi, Kou Dan, Ciais Philippe, Xu Xiaofeng, Peñuelas Josep, Xi Yi, Yang Guibiao, Song Yutong, Yao Shiting, Chang Jinfeng, Yang Yuanhe
State Key Laboratory of Forage Breeding-by-Design and Utilization; Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, China.
China National Botanical Garden, Beijing, 100093, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 12;16(1):7474. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6.
Methane (CH) emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify climate warming. However, long-term trajectory of net CH balance in permafrost regions, particularly high-altitude permafrost regions, remains unknown. Based on literature synthesis and CLM5.0 model, we evaluate the contemporary and future CH fluxes across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region from 1989-2100. Here, we find that this permafrost region functions as a marginal CH sink during 1989-2018 (-0.01 ± 0.01 Tg CH yr⁻¹), and future trajectories diverge, with warming and wetting under low- and medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5) driving persistent CH emissions (0.07 Tg CH yr⁻¹). By contrast, under higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5), the region shifts to net emissions by mid-century but enhanced atmospheric CH concentrations strengthen sink, returning it to a net sink by century's end (-0.06 ~ -0.02 Tg CH yr⁻¹). These results demonstrate that climate change and atmospheric CH dynamics jointly mediate the trajectory of alpine permafrost CH balance.
多年冻土融化产生的甲烷（CH）排放可能会加剧气候变暖。然而，多年冻土区，特别是高海拔多年冻土区的CH净平衡长期变化轨迹仍不明确。基于文献综述和CLM5.0模型，我们评估了1989年至2100年整个青藏高原多年冻土区当代和未来的CH通量。在此，我们发现该多年冻土区在1989年至2018年期间是一个边缘性CH汇（-0.01±0.01 Tg CH yr⁻¹），未来的变化轨迹有所不同，在低排放和中等排放情景（SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5）下的变暖和变湿会导致持续的CH排放（0.07 Tg CH yr⁻¹）。相比之下，在高排放情景（SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5）下，该地区到本世纪中叶会转变为净排放，但大气中CH浓度的增加会增强汇的作用，到本世纪末又会恢复为净汇（-0.06-0.02 Tg CH yr⁻¹）。这些结果表明，气候变化和大气CH动态共同调节了高山多年冻土CH平衡的变化轨迹。
