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模拟肯尼亚的输血系统:建模方法与探索性分析。

Simulating the blood transfusion system in Kenya: Modelling methods and exploratory analyses.

作者信息

Tian Yiqi, Zeng Bo, MacLeod Jana, Murithi Gatwiri, Makanga Cindy M, Barmasai Hillary, Barnes Linda S, Bidanda Rahul S, Chelagat Tecla, Epuu Tonny Ejilkon, Musa Abdirahaman, Kaburu Robert Kamu, Madan Jason, Makin Jennifer, Munoz-Valencia Alejandro, Njoki Carolyne, Ochieng Kevin, Olayo Bernard Oduor, Paiz Jose Ricardo, Rudd Kristina E, Yazer Mark, Puyana Juan Carlos, Bidanda Bopaya, Rajgopal Jayant, Kumar Pratap

机构信息

Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

Kenyatta University College of Health Sciences School of Medicine, Nairobi, Kenya.

出版信息

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025 Aug 13;5(8):e0004587. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004587. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

The process of collecting blood from donors and making it available for transfusion requires a complex series of operations involving multiple actors and different resources at each step. Ensuring hospitals receive adequate and safe blood for transfusion is a common challenge across low- and middle-income countries, but is rarely addressed from a system level. This paper presents the first use of discrete event simulation to study the blood system in Kenya and to explore the effect of variations and perturbations at different steps of the system on meeting blood demand at patient level. A process map of the Kenyan blood system was developed to capture critical steps from blood donation to transfusion using interviews with blood bank, hospital and laboratory personnel at four public hospitals across three counties in Kenya. The blood system was simulated starting with blood collection, a blood bank where blood is tested and stored before it is issued, a major hospital attached to the blood bank, and several smaller hospitals served by the same blood bank. Values for supply-side parameters were based mainly on expert opinion; demand-side parameters were based on data from blood requisitions made in hospital wards, and dispatch of blood from the hospital laboratory. Illustrative examples demonstrate how the model can be used to explore impacts of changes in blood collection (e.g., prioritising different donor types), blood demand (e.g., differing clinical case mix), and blood distribution (e.g., restocking strategies) on meeting demand at patient level. The model can reveal potential process impediments in the blood system and aid in choosing between alternate strategies or policies for improving blood collection, testing, distribution or use. Such a systems approach allows for interventions at different steps in the blood continuum to be tested on blood availability for different patients presenting at diverse hospitals across the country.

摘要

从献血者采集血液并使其可用于输血的过程需要一系列复杂的操作,在每个步骤中都涉及多个参与者和不同资源。确保医院获得充足且安全的输血用血是低收入和中等收入国家面临的共同挑战,但很少从系统层面加以解决。本文首次运用离散事件模拟来研究肯尼亚的血液系统,并探讨系统不同步骤中的变化和干扰对满足患者层面血液需求的影响。通过对肯尼亚三个县四家公立医院的血库、医院和实验室人员进行访谈,绘制了肯尼亚血液系统的流程图,以捕捉从献血到输血的关键步骤。对血液系统进行模拟,起点是血液采集,接着是一个在血液发放前进行检测和储存的血库、一家附属于该血库的大型医院,以及由同一血库服务的几家较小的医院。供应方参数的值主要基于专家意见;需求方参数基于医院病房的用血申请数据以及医院实验室的血液调配数据。示例表明该模型可用于探讨血液采集变化(例如对不同献血者类型进行优先级排序)、血液需求(例如不同的临床病例组合)和血液分配(例如补货策略)对满足患者层面需求的影响。该模型可以揭示血液系统中潜在的流程障碍,并有助于在改善血液采集、检测、分配或使用的替代策略或政策之间做出选择。这种系统方法允许在血液连续过程的不同步骤进行干预,以测试对全国各地不同医院中不同患者的血液供应情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/64ac/12349137/bcfdee78ee18/pgph.0004587.g001.jpg

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