Canteri Elisabetta, Brown Stuart C, Post Eric, Schmidt Niels Martin, Nogues-Bravo David, Fordham Damien A
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
Centre for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Sci Adv. 2025 Aug 15;11(33):eadu0175. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adu0175. Epub 2025 Aug 13.
(caribou or reindeer) survived periods of abrupt climatic warming during the last deglaciation but are currently in global decline. Using process-explicit models of likely climate-human- interactions and inferences of demographic change from radiocarbon-dated fossils and ancient DNA, we reconstruct and decipher 21,000 years of population dynamics. These high-resolution population reconstructions pinpoint ecological characteristics and life-history traits that most likely enabled to survive rapid warming events following the Last Glacial Maximum. Projecting these process-driven models into the future reveals that these attributes are unlikely to buffer against wide-scale population declines from expected 21st Century climatic warming. Our findings highlight a need to boost investments in the management and conservation of , particularly in North America, where projected losses are expected to exceed 80%. This will not only support the survival of the species and the vital services it renders in Arctic ecosystems, but also help sustain the socioeconomic, cultural, and emotional well-being of many -dependent communities.
（北美驯鹿或驯鹿）在上次冰消期经历了气候急剧变暖的时期后存活了下来，但目前正处于全球数量下降的状态。我们利用可能的气候 - 人类相互作用的过程明确模型以及来自放射性碳测年化石和古代DNA的人口变化推断，重建并解读了21000年的种群动态。这些高分辨率的种群重建确定了最有可能使（北美驯鹿或驯鹿）在上次盛冰期之后的快速变暖事件中存活下来的生态特征和生活史特征。将这些由过程驱动的模型投射到未来表明，这些特征不太可能缓冲预计21世纪气候变暖导致的大规模种群数量下降。我们的研究结果强调，需要加大对（北美驯鹿或驯鹿）管理和保护的投资，特别是在北美，预计那里的种群数量损失将超过80%。这不仅将支持该物种的生存以及它在北极生态系统中提供的重要服务，还将有助于维持许多依赖（北美驯鹿或驯鹿）的社区的社会经济、文化和情感福祉。
