Cunze Sarah, Klimpel Sven
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity Goethe-University Frankfurt/Main Germany.
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt/Main Germany.
Ecol Evol. 2022 Jul 24;12(7):e9141. doi: 10.1002/ece3.9141. eCollection 2022 Jul.
In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal () towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium-sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from , including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence-absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence.
近几十年来，人们观察到金豺（）迅速向欧洲北部和西部扩展其活动范围。金豺是一种中型犬科动物，饮食广泛且多样。全球范围内已报道了近200种不同的寄生虫物种寄生于金豺，其中包括许多与狗和猫共有的寄生虫以及对公共卫生有影响的寄生虫物种。由于寄生虫可能会随着宿主的活动范围变化而迁移，金豺活动范围的扩大可能会伴随着新生态系统中寄生虫群落的变化。在新的分布区域，金豺可能会影响生态系统平衡，例如通过改变竞争态势或捕食压力。在生态位建模方法中，我们在气候变化是否会促进其活动范围扩大的背景下，预测了欧洲金豺未来的气候栖息地适宜性。我们使用基于六种存在 - 缺失算法的集合预测，来估计到2100年不同时间段内金豺在不同IPCC未来发展情景下的气候适宜性。作为预测变量，我们使用了worldclim提供的六个生物气候变量。我们的结果清楚地表明，在未来几十年中，欧洲气候条件与当前金豺核心分布区域类似的地区将大幅向北和向西扩展。因此，观察到的活动范围扩大可能受到气候变化的青睐。预计在中欧会出现稳定的种群。关于生物多样性和公共卫生问题，应该对金豺的种群和活动范围动态进行调查。相关生态位模型为此提供了一种有用且常用的工具。这些结果有助于通过识别具有适宜栖息地且因此出现概率较高的区域，使监测更加高效。
