Ibrahim Shaima, Abdelraheem Omnia Mahmoud, El Kheir-Mataria Wafa Abu, Chun Sungsoo
Institute of Global Health and Human Ecology, American University in Cairo, New Cairo, Egypt.
JMIR Res Protoc. 2025 Aug 13;14:e74068. doi: 10.2196/74068.
Marked by high mortality rates on a global scale, with disease mortality being notably focused among older adults, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a significant health crisis. Despite the numerous publications on COVID-19 mortality among older adults, there is still a gap in knowledge when considering centenarians, as there is no systematic review and meta-analysis that summarizes COVID-19 mortality in centenarians globally.
This study aims to systematically review and synthesize global evidence on COVID-19 mortality rates among centenarians and the population of older adults worldwide, whether residing in long-term health facilities, hospitals, or their homes.
An automated search was conducted on the following databases: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Observational studies, both cohort and case-control, were selected. Quality assessment of the selected studies was based on the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for observational cohort and case-control studies. Three independent authors conducted the searches, and any possible disagreements were resolved by consensus. A meta-analysis of mortality proportions will be conducted to calculate the raw, logit, and arcsine proportions for all studies included in our meta-analyses. Heterogeneity between studies with a significance of P=.05 will be assessed by calculating the I value using the DerSimonian and Laird method for random effects. Odds ratios and 95% CIs for dichotomous data and weighted mean risk differences and 95% CIs for continuous variables will be calculated. Further subgroup analyses will be attempted to explore heterogeneity among over 6.7 million older adults. Leave-one-out sensitivity tests will be conducted to assess the robustness of our results. The meta-analysis will be conducted using R software version 4.4.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing).
A total of 4 studies were included in our systematic review and meta-analysis. Of the included studies, 3 are retrospective cohort studies and 1 is an observational, retrospective case-control study. As for study group size, 1 cohort study was conducted on a population of less than 1000 participants, 2 studies (1 cohort and 1 case-control) involved more than 10,000 participants, and 1 cohort study included more than 6 million participants.
This study has significant potential. Given the consensus that older adults, let alone centenarians, are the most vulnerable demographic to serious outcomes and deaths during pandemics. Addressing these gaps is crucial for the informed development of public policies, enabling countries to minimize the impacts on this population, particularly during health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
PROSPERO CRD42025645150; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42025645150.
INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/74068.
新冠疫情已成为一场重大的健康危机，在全球范围内死亡率极高，且疾病死亡显著集中在老年人中。尽管有大量关于老年人新冠死亡率的出版物，但在考虑百岁老人时仍存在知识空白，因为尚无系统综述和荟萃分析总结全球百岁老人的新冠死亡率。
本研究旨在系统综述和综合全球范围内关于百岁老人及全球老年人群体（无论居住在长期健康设施、医院还是家中）新冠死亡率的证据。
对以下数据库进行自动检索：PubMed、Scopus和Web of Science。选择队列研究和病例对照研究等观察性研究。所选研究的质量评估基于乔安娜·布里格斯研究所针对观察性队列和病例对照研究的批判性评价工具。由三位独立作者进行检索，任何可能的分歧通过协商解决。将对死亡率比例进行荟萃分析，以计算纳入荟萃分析的所有研究的原始比例、对数比例和反正弦比例。使用DerSimonian和Laird随机效应方法计算I值，评估P = 0.05时研究间的异质性。计算二分数据的比值比和95%置信区间以及连续变量的加权平均风险差异和95%置信区间。将尝试进行进一步的亚组分析，以探索670多万老年人中的异质性。将进行留一法敏感性检验，以评估结果的稳健性。荟萃分析将使用R软件版本4.4.2（R统计计算基金会）进行。
我们的系统综述和荟萃分析共纳入4项研究。在所纳入的研究中，3项为回顾性队列研究，1项为观察性回顾性病例对照研究。至于研究组规模，1项队列研究针对的参与者群体少于1000人，2项研究（1项队列研究和1项病例对照研究）涉及超过10000名参与者，1项队列研究纳入了超过600万参与者。
本研究具有重大潜力。鉴于人们一致认为老年人，更不用说百岁老人，是疫情期间最易出现严重后果和死亡的人群。填补这些空白对于明智地制定公共政策至关重要，能使各国尽量减少对这一人群的影响，尤其是在新冠疫情等健康危机期间。
PROSPERO CRD42025645150；https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD42025645150。
国际注册报告识别码（IRRID）：DERR1-10.
