Zhang Xi-Tao, Zhou De-Cheng
School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Aug 8;46(8):5196-5205. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202407004.
Rapid urbanization leads to the exacerbation of the urban heat island （UHI） effect, which significantly increases the climate risk of urban heatwaves. The construction of ecological cities, which aim for harmonious development between humans and nature, can substantially mitigate the UHI effect. However, research on the long-term evolution of the land surface thermal environment in ecological urban areas is relatively scarce. Taking the typical ecological city of Suzhou, China as an example, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of land use changes and land surface thermal environment effects in Suzhou from 1990 to 2020 and predicts the thermal environment for 2030 based on the PLUS model. The results showed that： ① The proportion of built-up areas increased by 3.72%, 11.66%, and 5.67% in 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020, respectively, with built-up land area accounting for 26.83% in 2020, predominantly from the conversion of farmland to built-up areas. ② The UHI intensity showed an increasing then decreasing trend during the study period, with nearly half of the regions experiencing a decrease in UHI levels from 2010 to 2020. ③ Spatially, areas with alleviated heat islands were mainly in the four county-level cities and Gusu District of Suzhou, and the built-up area in the 74.43% of areas with alleviated heat islands increased. ④ The urban heat island intensity of areas expected to change by 2030 is projected to increase by 42.65%, mainly concentrated in the southwest of Changshu City, the central part of Wuzhong District, and the central area of industrial parks on the urban edges and surrounding suburbs, while other areas will show a decreasing trend in heat island intensity. This study demonstrates that the construction of "ecological cities" in Suzhou has significantly reduced the UHI effect caused by urban expansion, providing theoretical references for further development of ecological cities.
快速城市化导致城市热岛（UHI）效应加剧，这显著增加了城市热浪的气候风险。旨在实现人与自然和谐发展的生态城市建设，可以大幅缓解城市热岛效应。然而，关于生态城市地区地表热环境长期演变的研究相对较少。本研究以中国典型生态城市苏州为例，分析了1990年至2020年苏州土地利用变化和地表热环境效应的时空演变模式，并基于PLUS模型预测了2030年的热环境。结果表明：①建成区比例在1990 - 2000年、2000 - 2010年和2010 - 2020年分别增加了3.72%、11.66%和5.67%，2020年建成区面积占26.83%，主要是由农田转变为建成区。②城市热岛强度在研究期间呈先增加后减少的趋势，2010年至2020年近一半地区的城市热岛水平有所下降。③在空间上，热岛缓解区域主要位于苏州的四个县级市和姑苏区，74.43%的热岛缓解区域内建成区面积增加。④预计到2030年发生变化的区域城市热岛强度预计将增加42.65%，主要集中在常熟市西南部、吴中区中部以及城市边缘和周边郊区的工业园区中心区域，而其他区域热岛强度将呈下降趋势。本研究表明，苏州“生态城市”建设显著降低了城市扩张引起的城市热岛效应，为生态城市的进一步发展提供了理论参考。
