Paprotny Dominik, Tilloy Aloïs, Treu Simon, Buch Anna, Vousdoukas Michalis I, Feyen Luc, Kreibich Heidi, Merz Bruno, Frieler Katja, Mengel Matthias
Research Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany.
Institute of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland.
Sci Adv. 2025 Aug 15;11(33):eadt7068. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adt7068.
Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.
欧洲洪水影响被认为正在增加,但将过去洪水的影响归因于气候和社会驱动因素仅限于最近的一系列事件。在此,我们开展了一项影响归因研究,涵盖了1729起河流、山洪、沿海和复合型洪水事件,这些事件造成了1950年至2020年间欧洲约83%至96%的洪水相关影响。我们表明,在大多数地区,相对于1950年基线而言,洪水影响的程度主要受人类直接活动的调控。面临风险的人口和经济价值有所增加,但由于风险管理的改善,脆弱性降低在很大程度上抵消了暴露增长的影响。在许多地区,观测到的气候长期变化和人类对河流集水区的改变也是洪水灾害的重要驱动因素,但最终对于整个欧洲大陆总影响的趋势而言相关性较小。