Schuler Thomas Vikhamar, Benestad Rasmus Emil, Isaksen Ketil, Kierulf Halfdan Pascal, Kohler Jack, Moholdt Geir, Schmidt Louise Steffensen
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo NO-0316, Norway.
Climate and Environment Department, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo NO-0313, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Aug 26;122(34):e2503806122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2503806122. Epub 2025 Aug 18.
A record-breaking melt season affected the Arctic glaciers of Svalbard in summer 2024 by a substantial margin. Across the entire archipelago, glacier melting corresponded to an anomaly of up to four SD and exceeded any previous observation. The pan-Svalbard mass loss in summer 2024 amounts to ~61.7 ± 11.1 Gt and corresponds to 1% of the total ice volume on Svalbard and is comparable to that of the Greenland ice sheet (55 ± 35 Gt), which occupies an area about 50 times larger. Altogether, Svalbard and other glacier regions surrounding the Barents Sea lost 102.1 ± 22.9 Gt of ice in a single year and contributed 0.27 ± 0.06 mm (of which 0.16 mm alone is due to Svalbard) to global sea-level, putting the circum-Barents region among the strongest contributors to global sea-level rise in 2024. Most of the 2024 glacier melt occurred during a 6-wk period of persistent atmospheric circulation pattern causing record-high air temperatures, an event with an extremely low recurrence interval under current climate conditions. However, future climate projections suggest that such temperature levels will become increasingly commonplace by the end of the 21st century, potentially even surpassing those of 2024. Svalbard's summer of 2024 serves as a forecast for future glacier meltdown in the Arctic, offering a glimpse into conditions 70 y ahead.
2024年夏季，破纪录的融化季对斯瓦尔巴群岛的北极冰川造成了极大影响。在整个群岛，冰川融化程度高达4个标准差，超过了以往任何观测结果。2024年夏季斯瓦尔巴群岛的总质量损失约为61.7±11.1吉吨，相当于斯瓦尔巴群岛总冰量的1%，与格陵兰冰盖（55±35吉吨）相当，而格陵兰冰盖的面积约是斯瓦尔巴群岛的50倍。总体而言，斯瓦尔巴群岛和巴伦支海周边的其他冰川地区在一年内损失了102.1±22.9吉吨的冰，导致全球海平面上升了0.27±0.06毫米（其中仅斯瓦尔巴群岛就导致上升0.16毫米），使巴伦支海周边地区成为2024年全球海平面上升的最大贡献地区之一。2024年大部分冰川融化发生在持续6周的大气环流模式期间，导致气温创历史新高，在当前气候条件下，这一事件的重现间隔极低。然而，未来气候预测表明，到21世纪末，这样的温度水平将变得越来越普遍，甚至可能超过2024年的水平。2024年斯瓦尔巴群岛的夏季预示着北极未来的冰川融化情况，让我们得以窥见70年后的状况。
