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基于频域和时间序列特征融合的股票预测深度学习模型研究。

Research on deep learning model for stock prediction by integrating frequency domain and time series features.

作者信息

Sun Wenjie, Mei Jianhua, Liu Shengrui, Yuan Chunhong, Zhao Jiaxuan

机构信息

Department of Global Management, Seokyeong University, Seoul, 02173, Republic of Korea.

Institute of Humanities, Seokyeong University, Seoul, 136-7011, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 19;15(1):30386. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-14872-6.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-14872-6
PMID:40830184
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12365240/
Abstract

In the field of financial technology, stock prediction has become a popular research direction due to its high volatility and uncertainty. Most existing models can only process single temporal features, failing to capture multi-scale temporal patterns and latent cyclical components embedded in price fluctuations, while also neglecting the interactions between different stocks-resulting in predictions that lack accuracy and stability. The StockMixer with ATFNet model proposed in this paper integrates both time-domain and frequency-domain features. By fusing information from both domains, the deep neural network significantly improves prediction accuracy and reliability. While temporal feature analysis is common, frequency-domain features, derived via spectral analysis (e.g., Fourier Transform), can reveal latent periodicities and seasonality patterns in price movements. This study employs an adaptive fusion approach to allow the two types of features to complement and enhance each other. The main innovations of this model are reflected in three aspects: (1) Construction of a time-channel hybrid model (MultTime2dMixer) to decouple the temporal evolution and inter-channel interactions of multivariate time series. (2) A novel non-graph-based stock relation modeling approach (NoGraphMixer) is proposed, which employs a learnable attention-based mapping mechanism to dynamically capture cross-stock dependencies without relying on pre-defined or static graph structures-thereby overcoming the inflexibility of conventional graph-based relation encoders. (3) Integration of a frequency-domain complex attention model (ATFNet) to model discontinuities in both the time and frequency domains, providing a strong supplement to time-domain modeling. At the implementation level, the original stock sequences are subjected to bidirectional feature extraction along both time and channel dimensions. NoGraphMixer is then used to construct implicit stock correlations. ATFNet is applied to map time-series data into both the temporal and frequency domains, extracting spectral features. Finally, a fusion mechanism integrates multimodal information to achieve effective fusion of multi-source data. Experimental results show significant improvements in classification evaluation metrics (Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score) for predicting price movement direction, as well as in metrics assessing the ranking ability of return predictions and backtesting performance-IC, RIC, Prec@N, and Sharpe Ratio (SR).

摘要

在金融科技领域,由于股票价格的高波动性和不确定性,股票预测已成为一个热门的研究方向。大多数现有模型只能处理单一的时间特征,无法捕捉价格波动中嵌入的多尺度时间模式和潜在周期性成分,同时还忽略了不同股票之间的相互作用,导致预测缺乏准确性和稳定性。本文提出的带有ATFNet模型的StockMixer集成了时域和频域特征。通过融合这两个领域的信息,深度神经网络显著提高了预测的准确性和可靠性。虽然时域特征分析很常见,但通过频谱分析(如傅里叶变换)得出的频域特征可以揭示价格走势中的潜在周期性和季节性模式。本研究采用自适应融合方法,使这两种类型的特征相互补充和增强。该模型的主要创新体现在三个方面:(1)构建时间通道混合模型(MultTime2dMixer),以解耦多元时间序列的时间演变和通道间相互作用。(2)提出了一种新颖的基于非图的股票关系建模方法(NoGraphMixer),该方法采用基于可学习注意力的映射机制来动态捕捉跨股票依赖性,而不依赖于预定义或静态的图结构,从而克服了传统基于图的关系编码器的灵活性不足。(3)集成频域复注意力模型(ATFNet),对时域和频域中的不连续性进行建模,并为时域建模提供有力补充。在实现层面,原始股票序列沿时间和通道维度进行双向特征提取。然后使用NoGraphMixer构建隐含的股票相关性。将ATFNet应用于将时间序列数据映射到时域和频域,提取频谱特征。最后,融合机制整合多模态信息,实现多源数据的有效融合。实验结果表明,在预测价格走势方向的分类评估指标(准确率、精确率、召回率、F1分数)以及评估收益预测排名能力和回测性能的指标(IC、RIC、Prec@N和夏普比率(SR))方面都有显著提升。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/1315b893b531/41598_2025_14872_Fig12_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/45a2a9166288/41598_2025_14872_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/a7e023bb1e2f/41598_2025_14872_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/d3e07525e7cd/41598_2025_14872_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/b31c9abcbd66/41598_2025_14872_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/1c11cb5fa517/41598_2025_14872_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/455be1f2db3a/41598_2025_14872_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/9e7555d81ec7/41598_2025_14872_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/7872a164fa0d/41598_2025_14872_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e924/12365240/1315b893b531/41598_2025_14872_Fig12_HTML.jpg

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