Vincent Elliot M R, Hill Edward M, Parnell Stephen
EPSRC & MRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2025 Aug 20;21(8):e1013352. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013352. eCollection 2025 Aug.
Reducing reliance on pesticides is an important global challenge. With increasing constraints on their use, in recent years there has been a declining trend in pesticide use for arable crops in the UK. But with increasing disease pressures and global demand for food, there is a greater need for effective measures of pest and disease control. These circumstances highlight the need for widespread adoption of sustainable alternative control measures. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is one such solution, comprising a set of management strategies which focus on the long-term prevention, detection and control of pests, weeds and diseases. While many of these methods are acknowledged to offer effective control, their implementation has thus far been limited in practice. As a case study we considered Septoria tritici blotch (STB) (Zymoseptoria tritici), an economically important disease of wheat. We used epidemiological modelling techniques to investigate the potential of different IPM control strategies (crop residue burial, delayed sowing, variety mixtures and biocontrols). Combining existing data with a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease model of STB transmission, we simulated the implementation of an IPM regime into the STB disease system. We investigated the outcomes on disease prevalence and crop yield when comparing conventional and IPM control regimes. In a single field, for the individual implementation of IPM measures we found the starkest difference in potential yield outcomes between delayed sowing and biocontrols (greatest yields), and crop residue burial and variety mixtures (lowest yields). We also found that the collective use of IPM measures has the potential to offer individual growers comparable control to a standard fungicide regime. For a multi-field setting, representing a community of crop growers, a high proportion of growers using IPM can reduce the level of external infection incurred by the growers who maintain a fungicide regime.
减少对农药的依赖是一项重大的全球挑战。随着农药使用限制的增加，近年来英国用于耕地作物的农药使用呈下降趋势。但随着病害压力增加和全球粮食需求增长，对病虫害有效防治措施的需求也更大。这些情况凸显了广泛采用可持续替代防治措施的必要性。综合虫害管理（IPM）就是这样一种解决方案，它包括一系列管理策略，重点是长期预防、检测和控制害虫、杂草及病害。虽然其中许多方法被认为能有效防治，但到目前为止，它们在实际中的应用还很有限。作为一个案例研究，我们考虑了小麦叶枯病（STB）（小麦壳针孢菌），这是一种对小麦经济影响重大的病害。我们使用流行病学建模技术来研究不同IPM防治策略（作物残茬掩埋、延迟播种、品种混合和生物防治）的潜力。将现有数据与一个关于STB传播的确定性、分区传染病模型相结合，我们模拟了在STB病害系统中实施IPM方案的情况。在比较传统防治方案和IPM防治方案时，我们研究了对病害流行率和作物产量的影响。在单个田块中，对于IPM措施的单独实施，我们发现延迟播种和生物防治（产量最高）与作物残茬掩埋和品种混合（产量最低）之间在潜在产量结果上的差异最为明显。我们还发现，综合使用IPM措施有可能为个体种植者提供与标准杀菌剂方案相当的防治效果。对于代表作物种植者群体的多田块环境，高比例使用IPM的种植者可以降低维持杀菌剂防治方案的种植者所遭受的外部感染水平。
