Nolen Shayla, Bessey Sam E, Howe Chanelle J, Rice Bridgette M, Biello Katie B, Marshall Brandon D L
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College St, New Haven, CT 06510, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, 121 South Main St, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, 121 South Main St, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
Ann Epidemiol. 2025 Aug 19;110:122-129. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2025.08.007.
Develop a spatially dynamic agent-based model to assess the impact of gentrification-induced migration on HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.
We simulated a population of heterosexual African American/Black adults diagnosed with or at risk for HIV in a spatially dynamic agent-based model. We included behavioral and HIV-related probabilities based on neighborhood of residence, distance to healthcare facilities from their neighborhood, and neighborhood disadvantage status. To assess the impact of gentrification, migration was implemented in the model using probabilities that varied based on the gentrification status of their neighborhood. We then compared this scenario to a scenario where gentrification does not impact migration.
Among African American/Black women, we estimated their mean incidence rates for the scenarios with and without gentrification impacting out-migration to be 57.2 and 57.4 per 100,000, respectively.
Gentrification appears to have minimal impact on HIV transmission based on some metrics, possibly because of the displacement of people most affected by HIV.
开发一个基于空间动态主体的模型，以评估绅士化引发的迁移对异性恋非裔美国/黑人女性中艾滋病毒传播的影响。
我们在一个基于空间动态主体的模型中模拟了一群被诊断为感染艾滋病毒或有感染风险的异性恋非裔美国/黑人成年人。我们纳入了基于居住社区、社区到医疗机构的距离以及社区劣势状况的行为和与艾滋病毒相关的概率。为了评估绅士化的影响，在模型中使用根据其社区绅士化状况而变化的概率来实施迁移。然后，我们将此情景与绅士化不影响迁移的情景进行比较。
在非裔美国/黑人女性中，我们估计在绅士化影响外迁和不影响外迁的情景下，她们的平均发病率分别为每10万人57.2例和57.4例。
基于一些指标，绅士化似乎对艾滋病毒传播影响极小，这可能是因为受艾滋病毒影响最严重的人群出现了迁移。
