Guliyev Hasraddin, Seyfullayev Ilgar
Azerbaijan State University of Economics, International Magistrate and Doctorate Center, Baku, AZ1007, Azerbaijan.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Oct;393:126960. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126960. Epub 2025 Aug 26.
This study examines the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for 147 countries from 1995 to 2018 using a bias-corrected dynamic panel data model. GDP per capita is the main explanatory variable, with industrialization, foreign direct investment, and globalization as controls. Results show strong persistence of emissions across all income groups, with the highest inertia in middle- and low-income countries, indicating that past emissions heavily influence current levels. An inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve is confirmed for high- and middle-income countries, where economic growth initially increases but later reduces emissions after surpassing a threshold-consistent with the role of technology and governance in environmental improvement. In low-income countries, a U-shaped pattern emerges, implying continued environmental degradation as economies grow, reflecting limited regulatory capacity and carbon-intensive development paths. Industrialization significantly increases emissions in high-income countries, highlighting the environmental burden of advanced but energy-intensive industries. Foreign direct investment raises emissions in low- and middle-income economies, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis, while its effect is negligible in high-income countries. Globalization increases emissions in low-income nations, due to carbon-intensive trade and resource exploitation, but shows no significant impact middle- and high-income level countries. These findings underscore the need for income-specific policies to decouple growth from emissions. In low- and middle-income countries, stricter environmental regulations, enhanced institutional capacity, and clean technology transfer are essential to avoid locking in high-carbon trajectories. The persistence of emissions suggests that policy impacts will be gradual, requiring long-term strategies and coordinated international efforts.
本研究考察了经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的关系，使用偏差校正动态面板数据模型对1995年至2018年期间147个国家的环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行了检验。人均国内生产总值是主要解释变量，工业化、外国直接投资和全球化作为控制变量。结果表明，所有收入群体的排放都具有很强的持续性，中低收入国家的惯性最大，这表明过去的排放对当前水平有很大影响。高收入和中等收入国家证实了倒U形的环境库兹涅茨曲线，即经济增长最初会增加排放，但在超过一个阈值后会减少排放，这与技术和治理在环境改善中的作用一致。在低收入国家，出现了U形模式，这意味着随着经济增长，环境将持续退化，反映出监管能力有限和碳密集型发展路径。工业化在高收入国家显著增加了排放，凸显了先进但能源密集型产业的环境负担。外国直接投资在低收入和中等收入经济体中增加了排放，支持了污染避难所假说，而其在高收入国家的影响可以忽略不计。全球化在低收入国家增加了排放，这是由于碳密集型贸易和资源开发，但在中等收入和高收入水平国家没有显著影响。这些发现强调了制定针对不同收入水平的政策以使增长与排放脱钩的必要性。在低收入和中等收入国家，更严格的环境法规、增强的机构能力和清洁技术转让对于避免陷入高碳轨迹至关重要。排放的持续性表明政策影响将是渐进的，需要长期战略和国际协调努力。
