Mahato Roshan Kumar, Htike Kyaw Min, Kafle Alok, Gewali Vishal, Kafle Anup, Sharma Vijay
Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand.
Nepal Public Health and Research Consultancy, Kathmandu Nepal.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 29;20(8):e0331333. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0331333. eCollection 2025.
Road traffic accidents (RTAs) continue to pose a significant menace to global public health in the form of a high incidence of mortality, disability and economic expense. Their space-time trends are of importance for policy decision-making. This particular study employed spatial analysis to identify high-risk zones and found significant clustering of accidents in urban centers as well as increasing semi-urban and rural vulnerabilities, supporting the need for safety interventions and road infrastructure improvements in Nepal. This paper aims to determine and analyze the incidence of RTAs in Nepal from 2019 to 2022, primarily focusing on vehicle-types and spatial distribution.
Data from all seven provinces and Kathmandu Valley Traffic Police Office were analyzed to examine RTAs patterns across 77 districts of Nepal. The data were processed and visualized using Quantum GIS (QGIS), and spatial analysis performed using Global and Local Moran's I statistics, along with Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), to identify spatial clusters of accidents.
This study identified statistically significant spatial clustering of vehicle types involved in RTAs. High-High (HH) clusters, indicating areas with elevated accident rates surrounded by similarly high-risk zones were concentrated in urban centers particularly Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Bhaktapur. Conversely, Low-Low (LL) clusters, reflecting lower accident rates in sparsely populated regions, were observed in rural areas. Temporal analysis revealed a steady rise in RTAs incidence, with rates increasing from 63.35 per 100,000 population in 2019-2020 (Moran's I = 0.741) to 94.46 in 2020-2021 (Moran's I = 0.595) and 123.05 in 2021-2022 (Moran's I = 0.556).
This present study observed the growing incidence of RTAs in Nepal. The results highlight the critical need for geographically tailored road safety interventions with priority given to urban and semi-urban zones. Effective strategies should emphasize enhanced road traffic law enforcement, strict regulation of commercial and two-wheeled vehicles as well as targeted infrastructure upgrades in an effective manner.
道路交通事故（RTAs）持续以高死亡率、高致残率和高昂经济成本的形式对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁。其时空趋势对政策制定具有重要意义。本项具体研究采用空间分析来确定高风险区域，发现城市中心事故显著聚集，半城市和农村地区的脆弱性也在增加，这支持了尼泊尔开展安全干预措施和改善道路基础设施的必要性。本文旨在确定并分析2019年至2022年尼泊尔道路交通事故的发生率，主要关注车辆类型和空间分布。
分析了来自所有七个省份以及加德满都谷地交通警察局的数据，以研究尼泊尔77个地区的道路交通事故模式。使用量子地理信息系统（QGIS）对数据进行处理和可视化，并使用全局和局部莫兰指数（Moran's I）统计量以及空间关联局部指标（LISA）进行空间分析，以识别事故的空间聚集情况。
本研究确定了道路交通事故中涉及的车辆类型存在具有统计学意义的空间聚集。高高（HH）聚类表明事故率较高的区域被同样高风险的区域包围，这些区域集中在城市中心，特别是加德满都、勒利德布尔和巴克塔普尔。相反，低低（LL）聚类反映了人口稀少地区事故率较低的情况，在农村地区观察到此类聚类。时间分析显示道路交通事故发生率稳步上升，从2019 - 2020年每10万人63.35起（莫兰指数I = 0.741）增至2020 - 2021年的94.46起（莫兰指数I = 0.595）以及2021 - 2022年的123.05起（莫兰指数I = 0.556）。
本研究观察到尼泊尔道路交通事故发生率不断上升。结果凸显了迫切需要因地制宜地开展道路安全干预措施，优先考虑城市和半城市地区。有效的策略应强调加强道路交通执法、严格监管商用车辆和两轮车辆，并切实进行有针对性的基础设施升级。
