Guinat Claire, Valenzuela Agüí Cecilia, Briand François-Xavier, Chakraborty Debapriyo, Fourtune Lisa, Lambert Sébastien, Jimenez Pellicer Andrea, Rautureau Severine, Gerbier Guillaume, du Plessis Louis, Stadler Tanja, Grasland Beatrice, Paul Mathilde C, Vergne Timothée
Interactions Hôtes-Agents Pathogènes (IHAP), Université de Toulouse, INRAE, ENVT, Toulouse, France.
Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, Basel, Switzerland.
Commun Biol. 2025 Aug 29;8(1):1306. doi: 10.1038/s42003-025-08687-4.
The continuous spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses poses significant challenges, particularly in regions with high poultry farm densities where conventional control measures are less effective. Using phylogeographic and phylodynamic tools, we analysed virus spread in southwestern France in 2020 and 2021, a region with recurrent outbreaks. Following a single introduction, the virus spread regionally, mostly affecting duck farms, with an average velocity of 10.5 km/week and a peak at 27.8 km/week in mid-December. The effective reproduction number between farms (R) exceeded 1 in December, peaking at 3.8 in mid-December. Transmission declined after late December, coinciding with extensive preventive culling, suggesting that standard 3- and 10-km zones were more effective when combined with timely, large-scale interventions. Farm infectiousness was estimated around 9 days, highlighting a critical window of undetected viral shedding and transmission risk. Duck farm density and poultry farm proximity were key drivers of virus spread, likely due to the higher virus susceptibility and transmission efficiency of ducks compared to chickens. We identified density and proximity thresholds required to maintain effective control (R < 1). These findings offer actionable guidance to support regional biosecurity and to improve the robustness of the poultry sector to mitigate future outbreaks.
高致病性H5禽流感病毒的持续传播带来了重大挑战,尤其是在禽类养殖场密度高的地区,传统控制措施效果较差。我们使用系统发育地理学和系统发育动力学工具,分析了2020年和2021年法国西南部的病毒传播情况,该地区疫情反复爆发。在单次引入后,病毒在区域内传播,主要影响鸭场,平均传播速度为每周10.5公里,12月中旬达到峰值,为每周27.8公里。12月养殖场之间的有效繁殖数(R)超过1,12月中旬达到峰值3.8。12月下旬后传播下降,这与大规模预防性扑杀同时发生,表明标准的3公里和10公里区域与及时的大规模干预措施相结合时效果更佳。估计养殖场的感染期约为9天,凸显了未检测到病毒 shedding 和传播风险的关键窗口期。鸭场密度和禽类养殖场的ximity是病毒传播的关键驱动因素,可能是因为鸭子比鸡对病毒更易感且传播效率更高。我们确定了维持有效控制(R < 1)所需的密度和ximity阈值。这些发现为支持区域生物安全和提高家禽业应对未来疫情爆发的稳健性提供了可操作的指导。
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