Liu R Y, Zhao H, Yang S M
Senior Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, the 6th Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Chinese PLA Medical School, National Clinical Research Center for Otolaryngologic Diseases, State Key Laboratory of Hearing and Balance Science, Key Laboratory of Hearing Science, Ministry of Education, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hearing Impairment Prevention and Treatment, Beijing 100048, China.
Zhonghua Er Bi Yan Hou Tou Jing Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2025 Aug 7;60(8):903-910. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn115330-20240928-00550.
To describe, analyze, and compare the temporal trends of age and sex-specific burden of Otitis media(OM) in China and globally from 1992 to 2021. Data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database from 1992 to 2021 were used to analyze the characteristics of OM burden in China and globally, including changes in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs). Epidemiological characteristics of OM were analyzed using methods such as Joinpoint analysis, age-period-cohort models, and decomposition analysis. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) models were used to forecast the incidence and prevalence rates over the next 15 years. From 1992 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of OM in China decreased from 4 183.54/100, 000 to 4 179.92/100, 000, while, the global ASIR increased from 5 345.09/100, 000 to 5 529.1/100, 000. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in China decreased from 1 835.2/100, 000 to 1 332.11/100, 000, while, the global ASPR decreased from 1 786.56/100, 000 to 1 593.74/100, 000. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in China decreased from 0.01/100, 000 to 0, while, the global ASMR decreased from 0.03/100, 000 to 0.01/100, 000. The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) in China decreased from 37.39/100, 000 to 26.53/100, 000, while, the global ASDR decreased from 37.68/100, 000 to 32.54/100, 000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) for ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in China were -0.003%, -1.101%, -9.803%, and -1.178%, respectively, while, globally the AAPC were 0.116%, -0.395%, -4.396%, and -0.506%, respectively. The impact of age and sex on the burden of OM varied. The incidence rate was highest in children, especially in the group under 5 years old, followed by the elderly. The incidence and mortality of OM were higher in females than in males. Decomposition analysis indicated that the main factor contributing to the decline in DALYs in China was epidemiological changes, while, the main factor contributing to the increase in global DALYs was population growth. Over the next 15 years, it might be predicted that the prevalence of OM will decrease in both China and globally, with a decrease in incidence in China and an increase in the global incidence. From 1992 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of OM in China have generally shown a declining trend, indicating a gradual reduction in the disease burden of OM in China. The disease burden of OM is age-related, with the highest incidence and prevalence observed in children and a higher mortality rate in the elderly population. OM remains a significant public health challenge in China.
描述、分析和比较1992年至2021年中国和全球中耳炎（OM）按年龄和性别划分的疾病负担的时间趋势。使用1992年至2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库的数据来分析中国和全球OM负担的特征，包括发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）的变化。采用Joinpoint分析、年龄-时期-队列模型和分解分析等方法分析OM的流行病学特征。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来15年的发病率和患病率。1992年至2021年，中国OM的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从4183.54/10万降至4179.92/10万，而全球ASIR从5345.09/10万增至5529.1/10万。中国的年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）从1835.2/10万降至1332.11/10万，而全球ASPR从1786.56/10万降至1593.74/10万。中国的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）从0.01/10万降至0，而全球ASMR从0.03/10万降至0.01/10万。中国的年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）从37.39/10万降至26.53/10万，而全球ASDR从37.68/10万降至32.54/10万。中国ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的平均年变化百分比（AAPC）分别为-0.003%、-1.101%、-9.803%和-1.178%，而全球的AAPC分别为0.116%、-0.395%、-4.396%和-0.506%。年龄和性别对OM负担的影响各不相同。发病率在儿童中最高,尤其是5岁以下儿童组，其次是老年人。OM的发病率和死亡率女性高于男性。分解分析表明，中国DALYs下降的主要因素是流行病学变化，而全球DALYs增加的主要因素是人口增长。未来15年，可以预测中国和全球OM的患病率均将下降，中国的发病率下降，全球发病率上升。1992年至2021年，中国OM的发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs总体呈下降趋势，表明中国OM的疾病负担在逐渐减轻。OM的疾病负担与年龄相关，儿童的发病率和患病率最高，老年人口的死亡率较高。OM在中国仍然是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。
