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1990年至2021年中国脑膜炎负担趋势分析及到2036年的预测。

Analysis of the trends in burden of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2036.

作者信息

Xu Xi, Xu Kai, Wu Qiulin

机构信息

Department of Clinical Laboratory, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou, China.

Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Second People's Hospital of Lishui, Lishui, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2025 Jul 30;13:1603244. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1603244. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1603244
PMID:40809770
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12343607/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in age and sex burdens of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021 and to compare them with the global burden of the disease.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, this study analyzed the features of meningitis burden in China and globally, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and associated 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were computed using Joinpoint. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the differences in meningitis burden between China and the world was conducted from multiple dimensions, including age, sex, and periods. Using the BAPC and INLA software tools to perform a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis in R.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR fell from 66.565/100,000 to 31.649/100,000 globally, and from 30.833/100,000 to 5.791/100,000 in China. The ASPR decreased from 11,291,266/100,000 to 92.251/100,000 globally, and from 140.1/100,000 to 16.622/100,000 in China. The ASMR decreased from 7.416/100,000 to 2.947/100,000 globally, while decreased from 3.537/100,000 to 0.475/100,000 in China. The ASDR decreased from 551.176/100,000 to 208.565/100,000 globally, while decreased from 267.304/100,000 to 27.952/100,000 in China. The global AAPC of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR was -2.364, 2.679, -2.970%, and -3.131%, whereas in China it was -5.307, -6.665%, -6.311%, and -7.149, respectively. The effects of age and sex on the burden of meningitis were different. Men had higher incidence and mortality rates of meningitis than women. ASIR in males and females would decrease in the following years.

CONCLUSION

There was a discernible decline in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs associated with meningitis in China and worldwide between 1990 and 2021. Meningitis is more common and fatal in infants and early children, followed by the older adult. Men are more likely than women to die from meningitis and to contract it. It is anticipated that the disease burden of meningitis will continue to decline over the ensuing 12 years. Meningitis continues to be a significant public health concern in China due to the country's huge and aging population.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在描述1990年至2021年中国脑膜炎年龄和性别负担的时间趋势,并将其与全球疾病负担进行比较。

方法

利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021的数据,本研究分析了中国和全球脑膜炎负担的特征,包括发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年(DALY)、年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)、年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)和年龄标准化DALY率(ASDR)。使用Joinpoint计算平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)及其相关的95%置信区间(95%CI)。从年龄、性别和时期等多个维度对中国和世界脑膜炎负担的差异进行了全面的比较分析。使用BAPC和INLA软件工具在R中进行贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)分析。

结果

1990年至2021年,全球ASIR从66.565/10万降至31.649/10万,中国从30.833/10万降至5.791/10万。全球ASPR从11,291,266/10万降至92.251/10万,中国从140.1/10万降至16.622/10万。全球ASMR从7.416/10万降至2.947/10万,中国从3.537/10万降至0.475/10万。全球ASDR从551.176/10万降至208.565/10万,中国从267.304/10万降至27.952/10万。全球ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的AAPC分别为-2.364、2.679、-2.970%和-3.131%,而中国分别为-5.307、-6.665%、-6.311%和-7.149。年龄和性别对脑膜炎负担的影响不同。男性脑膜炎的发病率和死亡率高于女性。未来几年男性和女性的ASIR均会下降。

结论

1990年至2021年期间,中国和全球与脑膜炎相关的发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALY均有明显下降。脑膜炎在婴幼儿中更为常见且致命,其次是老年人。男性比女性更易死于脑膜炎且更易感染。预计在接下来的12年中,脑膜炎的疾病负担将继续下降。由于中国庞大且老龄化的人口,脑膜炎仍是中国一个重大的公共卫生问题。

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