Guan Yusheng, An Kangxin, Zheng Xinzhu, Zhang Shihui, Wang Can
School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China.
iScience. 2025 Aug 7;28(9):113277. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.113277. eCollection 2025 Sep 19.
In recent years, the costs of renewable technologies like photovoltaic (PV) and wind power have declined sharply, with scale growth being a key driver. The impact of scale growth comes from both domestic expansion (national endeavor [NE]) and international deployment (global engagement [GE]). Using learning curve models and counterfactual inference, we quantify their respective contributions to the decline in total installed cost of wind and PV power. Results show that GE accounts for 17% of the global cost decline in PV and 48% in wind power. NE plays a dominant role in manufacturing countries such as China, India, and the US, while GE is essential for supporting energy transitions in countries outside these hubs. Without GE, the global investment gap would increase by 42% to meet the 2030 Tripling Target for renewable energy. These findings underscore the critical importance of global cooperation in enabling green and low-carbon development worldwide.
近年来，光伏（PV）和风能等可再生技术的成本大幅下降，规模增长是关键驱动力。规模增长的影响来自国内扩张（国家努力[NE]）和国际部署（全球参与[GE]）。我们使用学习曲线模型和反事实推断，量化它们各自对风能和光伏发电总安装成本下降的贡献。结果表明，全球参与在光伏全球成本下降中占17%，在风能中占48%。国家努力在诸如中国、印度和美国等制造国家发挥主导作用，而全球参与对于支持这些核心地区以外国家的能源转型至关重要。如果没有全球参与，为实现2030年可再生能源三倍增长目标，全球投资缺口将增加42%。这些发现凸显了全球合作在推动全球绿色和低碳发展方面的至关重要性。
