School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Xinjiekouwai Street No. 19, Beijing, 100875, PR China.
Center for Global Environmental Policy, Beijing Normal University, Xinjiekouwai Street No. 19, Beijing, 100875, PR China.
Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 24;12(1):6820. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26547-7.
The global trade of solar photovoltaic (PV) products substantially contributes to increases in solar power generation and carbon emissions reductions. This paper depicts global PV product trade patterns, explores emissions reduction potential, and evaluates the impeding effect of tariff barriers on global PV product trade and emissions reductions. Solar power generation will result in a reduction of emissions in a range of 50-180 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCOe) between 2017 and 2060 in a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Compared with BAU, during 2017-2060, global total solar cell and module production and installation will increase by roughly 750 gigawatts (GW) if half of the status quo trade barrier are removed, while it will decrease by 160-370 GW under tensioned trade barrier scenarios. Trade barrier reduction by half from the 2017 status quo level will increase the net carbon emissions mitigation potential by 4-12 GtCOe by 2060, while extra trade barrier imposition will result in global net carbon emissions mitigation potential decreasing by up to 3-4 GtCOe by 2060. Well-coordinated policy and institutional reforms are recommended to facilitate PV product trade and to deliver the related global environmental benefits.
全球太阳能光伏 (PV) 产品贸易对太阳能发电增长和碳排放减少做出了重大贡献。本文描述了全球 PV 产品贸易模式，探讨了减排潜力，并评估了关税壁垒对全球 PV 产品贸易和减排的阻碍作用。在“照常营业”（BAU）情景下，太阳能发电将在 2017 年至 2060 年期间减少 50-180 吉吨二氧化碳当量（GtCOe）的排放。与 BAU 相比，如果消除一半的现有贸易壁垒，全球太阳能电池和组件的总产量和安装量将在 2017 年至 2060 年间增加约 750 吉瓦（GW），而在紧张的贸易壁垒情景下，这一数字将减少 160-370 GW。与 2017 年的现状相比，将贸易壁垒降低一半，到 2060 年将增加 4-12 吉吨二氧化碳当量的净碳减排潜力，而额外增加贸易壁垒将导致全球净碳减排潜力到 2060 年减少多达 3-4 吉吨二氧化碳当量。建议进行良好协调的政策和体制改革，以促进 PV 产品贸易并实现相关的全球环境效益。
