From basin to gulf: Conservation tillage improves soil health but exacerbates hypoxia.

Agricultural management practices such as conservation tillage is promoted in the U.S. Midwest for improving soil health, mitigating nutrient loss, and reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of America (GOA). However, large-scale evaluations of tillage impact on soil organic carbon (SOC), water quality, and the implications for hypoxia in the Gulf are lacking. By combining a meta-analysis of field experiments with watershed modelling, this study finds that by 2050, no-till (NT) farming could enhance SOC by ~5.4 MgC ha , increase streamflow by 17.3%, and reduce soil erosion by ~4.9%, compared to high-intensity tillage (HT). However, widespread NT adoption could raise nitrogen loss, thus expand summer hypoxia of the GOA to 16,500 km², 21.5% larger than the HT scenario. Despite its soil health benefits, conservation tillage may complicate efforts to reduce hypoxic zones to the targeted 5000 km² by 2035. These tradeoffs underscore the need for balanced approaches in future conservation strategies.