Moskowitz M, Gartside P, Gardella L, de Groot I, Guenther D
AJR Am J Roentgenol. 1977 Sep;129(3):537-43. doi: 10.2214/ajr.129.3.537.
Analysis of the data of the Health Insurance Plan of New York Breast Cancer Screening Study indicates that in patients whose cancers were found by screening, the case fatality rate at all ages is almost half the case fatality rate of controls. The data also strongly suggest that maximal benefit in young women resides in the detection of in situ cancers. Due to relatively low yield of these early lesions, projected 20 year survival in that study may be little different for all women screened compared to controls. We have shown that the yield of these early lesions can be increased by aggressive screening and liberal use of biopsy. Furthermore, where J.C. Bailar has indicated a net gain (or loss) of -4 to +8 lives per 20,000 women using the HIP data, using his method and our data we find a savings of 25-27 lives/20,000 women by 3 year screening to date. These are lives that have been saved by mammography alone.
纽约乳腺癌筛查研究健康保险计划的数据分析表明，在通过筛查发现癌症的患者中，各年龄段的病死率几乎是对照组病死率的一半。数据还强烈表明，年轻女性的最大获益在于原位癌的检测。由于这些早期病变的检出率相对较低，该研究中所有接受筛查的女性与对照组相比，预计20年生存率可能没有太大差异。我们已经表明，通过积极筛查和广泛使用活检可以提高这些早期病变的检出率。此外，J.C. 贝拉尔指出，使用健康保险计划（HIP）的数据，每20000名女性中有-4至+8人的净获益（或损失），使用他的方法和我们的数据，到目前为止，通过3年筛查，每20000名女性可挽救25 - 27条生命。这些生命是仅通过乳房X线摄影术挽救的。
