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通过净现值评估塑造具有弹性的防洪系统设计。

Shaping resilient flood control system design through net present value assessments.

作者信息

Al-Rawas Ghazi, Nikoo Mohammad Reza, Hassani Mohammad Reza, Janbehsarayi Seyyed Farid Mousavi, Kouhi Hossein Hosseinzadeh, Niksokhan Mohammad Hossein

机构信息

Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.

Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Sep 9;20(9):e0331225. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0331225. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

Designing sustainable Flood Control Systems (FCSs) requires considering both the resiliency of the system and the long-term viability of investments. In this regard, our research aimed at integrating concepts of hydrological resiliency and cost-benefit analysis to design the most effective flood control network. To do so, first, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was developed for simulating flood condition. Then, this model was coupled with the Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm-II (PESA-II) to identify the optimal channels' characteristics and generate a range of non-dominated solutions that balance implementation costs, system resilience (measured by the Simple Urban Flood Resilience Index, SUFRI), and overflow. Different flood management scenarios extracted for North Al-Batinah, Oman, a region under extreme flood events, exhibited high resilience and effectively reduced system overflow with reasonable costs. This highlights the value of optimization in resolving the conflicting objectives inherent in FCS design. Finally, net present values evaluated the long-term economic viability of each management scenario. The results revealed that strategies with moderate design costs and higher SUFRI values yielded optimal financial returns and substantial flood risk reductions. Also, the selected alternative based on net present value could reduce flood volume by 77.9%. This research underscores the critical role of incorporating resilience and cost-benefit analysis into FCS design to enhance the decision-making process.

摘要

设计可持续的防洪系统(FCS)需要同时考虑系统的恢复力和投资的长期可行性。在这方面,我们的研究旨在整合水文恢复力概念和成本效益分析,以设计最有效的防洪网络。为此,首先开发了雨水管理模型(SWMM)来模拟洪水情况。然后,将该模型与基于帕累托包络的选择算法-II(PESA-II)相结合,以确定最佳渠道特征,并生成一系列非支配解,这些解平衡了实施成本、系统恢复力(通过简单城市洪水恢复力指数,SUFRI衡量)和溢流情况。为阿曼北巴提奈地区(一个遭受极端洪水事件的地区)提取的不同洪水管理方案,展现出了高恢复力,并以合理成本有效减少了系统溢流。这凸显了优化在解决FCS设计中固有冲突目标方面的价值。最后,净现值评估了每个管理方案的长期经济可行性。结果显示,设计成本适中且SUFRI值较高的策略产生了最佳财务回报,并大幅降低了洪水风险。此外,基于净现值选择的方案可将洪水量减少77.9%。本研究强调了将恢复力和成本效益分析纳入FCS设计以加强决策过程的关键作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7bae/12419665/b90990c57429/pone.0331225.g001.jpg

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