Fome Anna Daniel, Rodiah Isti, Bock Wolfgang, Lange Berit, Klar Axel
Department of Mathematics, Rheinland-Pfälzische Technische Universität Kaiserslautern-Landau, Gottlieb-Daimler-Str.48, Kaiserslautern, 67663, Germany.
Department of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Jordan University College, P.O.Box 1878, Morogoro, Tanzania.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Sep 9;25(1):3044. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-24362-z.
We study the dynamics of coexisting influenza and SARS-CoV-2 by adapting a well-established age-specific COVID-19 model to a multi-pathogen framework. Sensitivity analysis and adjustment of the model to real-world data are used to investigate the influence of age-related factors on disease dynamics. Our findings underscore the critical role that transmission rates play in shaping the spread of influenza and COVID-19. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the significant interaction between influenza and SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, particularly in scenarios with partial cross-immunity. This underscores the importance of comprehensive interventions that simultaneously target both pathogens to effectively control their spread in coexisting environments. Our results demonstrate the importance of age-structured models in capturing the dynamics of influenza and COVID-19, underscoring the importance of accounting for age structure. Notable disparities emerge in estimated transmission rates between single-pathogen and multi-pathogen models, shedding light on the complex interactions between pathogens and their impacts on disease transmission across different age groups.
我们通过将一个成熟的特定年龄新冠病毒模型应用于多病原体框架，来研究流感和新冠病毒共存的动态情况。利用敏感性分析以及根据实际数据对模型进行调整，来研究与年龄相关的因素对疾病动态的影响。我们的研究结果强调了传播率在塑造流感和新冠病毒传播方面所起的关键作用。此外，我们的分析突出了流感和新冠病毒传播率之间的显著相互作用，特别是在存在部分交叉免疫的情况下。这凸显了同时针对两种病原体的综合干预措施对于在共存环境中有效控制其传播的重要性。我们的结果证明了年龄结构模型在捕捉流感和新冠病毒动态方面的重要性，强调了考虑年龄结构的重要性。单病原体模型和多病原体模型之间估计的传播率出现了显著差异，这揭示了病原体之间复杂的相互作用及其对不同年龄组疾病传播的影响。
