Reddington C L, Smith C, Butt E W, Baker J C A, Oliveira B F A, Yamba E I, Spracklen D V
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Fiocruz Regional Office of Piauí, National School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Teresina, Brazil.
Nat Clim Chang. 2025;15(9):992-999. doi: 10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0. Epub 2025 Aug 27.
Tropical deforestation induces local warming and is a potential human health risk, having been linked to elevated human heat stress and reduced safe outdoor working hours. Here we show deforestation-induced local warming is associated with 28,000 (95% confidence interval: 23,610-33,560) heat-related deaths per year using a pan-tropical assessment. Analysis of satellite data shows tropical deforestation during 2001-2020 exposed 345 million people to local warming with population-weighted daytime land surface warming of 0.27 °C. Estimated heat-related mortality rates are greatest in Southeast Asia (8-11 deaths for every 100,000 people living in deforested areas) followed by tropical regions of Africa and the Americas. In regions of forest loss, local warming from deforestation could account for over one third of total climate heat-related mortality, highlighting the important contribution of tropical deforestation to ongoing warming and heat-related health risks within the context of climate change.
热带森林砍伐会导致局部气候变暖,并且是一种潜在的人类健康风险,这与人类热应激加剧以及安全户外工作时间减少有关。在此,我们通过泛热带评估表明,森林砍伐导致的局部气候变暖每年与28,000例(95%置信区间:23,610 - 33,560)与高温相关的死亡案例有关。卫星数据分析显示,2001年至2020年期间的热带森林砍伐使3.45亿人面临局部气候变暖,人口加权后的白天陆地表面升温达0.27°C。估计与高温相关的死亡率在东南亚最高(生活在森林砍伐地区的每10万人中有8 - 11人死亡),其次是非洲和美洲的热带地区。在森林流失地区,森林砍伐导致的局部气候变暖可能占气候相关总热死亡率的三分之一以上,这凸显了热带森林砍伐在气候变化背景下对持续变暖及与高温相关的健康风险的重要影响。