The emergence of a new pilgrimage as an assurance game.

Pilgrimage has received long-standing scholarly attention, but most theoretical work focuses on how these rituals can be maintained, rather than the bigger puzzle of how they emerge. Using empirical inspiration from a new pilgrimage in Peru, we address this gap by outlining a theoretical framework more capable of accounting for how these phenomena get off the ground. We contend that the framework of an assurance game (a type of coordination game) captures the challenge of a collective ritual like pilgrimage emerging. By combining this assurance game with a model of Bayesian learning under uncertainty we illustrate how pilgrimage can be institutionalized on occasion. We further argue that our approach sheds light on the relationship between rituals and uncertainty, without having to make strong assumptions about individuals' psychological needs.