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金融市场中风险感知的神经科学：气候政策不确定性如何影响印度和美国投资者的认知

The Neuroscience of Risk Perception in Financial Markets: How Climate Policy Uncertainty Affects Investor Cognition in India and the USA.

作者信息

Agrawal Pravin Kumar, Kumar Mohit, Kushwaha Vibha, Goenka Shubham, Agrawal Supriya, Rana Gagan

机构信息

Department of Business Management, Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India.

School of Business Management, Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India.

出版信息

Ann Neurosci. 2025 Sep 8:09727531251364683. doi: 10.1177/09727531251364683.

DOI:10.1177/09727531251364683
PMID:40933791
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12417448/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Climate related risks are increasingly affecting financial markets, most importantly, policy risk regarding climate regulation. Not only do such risks impact market dynamics, but they can also have an impact on investor behaviour as cognitive and emotional reactions to risk. Understanding the interplay between climate policy and market volatility is essential for both economic forecasting and behavioural finance.

PURPOSE

This study aims to examine the dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and the volatility of major stock market indices viz. Nifty 50 and Sensex in India, and Nasdaq and Dow Jones in the USA and exploring potential neurobehavioural responses of investors to such uncertainty.

METHODS

This research aims to determine the dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty, Indian benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex, and USA stock market indices Nasdaq and Dow Jones for the monthly data from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2024. The article has adopted Diebold and Yilmaz's connectedness framework and WC approach for data analysis. The analysis is interpreted through the lens of neuroeconomics, considering how climate policy uncertainty may influence cognitive risk processing in financial decision-making.

RESULTS

Findings show that indices such as Sensex, Nasdaq and Dow Jones are more responsive to climate policy uncertainty compared with others. These trends suggest that the reactions of global investors are not only strategic but also subject to psychological tension and risk perception mechanisms.

CONCLUSION

Uncertainty in climate policy exerts a notable influence on stock market volatility with far-reaching implications extending beyond the classical economic indicators to encompass investor cognition and neurobehavioural reactions. The outcome of the current research underscores incorporating neuroscience-informed methods into financial decision-making, providing significant feedback for investors and policymakers regarding risk management, portfolio maximisation and interpreting behavioural responses under environmental uncertainty.

摘要

背景

与气候相关的风险对金融市场的影响日益增大，其中最重要的是气候监管方面的政策风险。这类风险不仅会影响市场动态，还会对投资者行为产生影响，因为投资者会对风险产生认知和情绪反应。了解气候政策与市场波动之间的相互作用对于经济预测和行为金融学都至关重要。

目的

本研究旨在考察气候政策不确定性与主要股票市场指数（即印度的Nifty 50和Sensex指数，以及美国的纳斯达克指数和道琼斯指数）的波动性之间的动态关系，并探索投资者对这种不确定性可能产生的潜在神经行为反应。

方法

本研究旨在确定2010年4月1日至2024年3月31日期间月度数据的气候政策不确定性、印度基准指数Nifty 50和Sensex指数以及美国股票市场指数纳斯达克指数和道琼斯指数之间的动态关系。本文采用迪博尔德和伊尔马兹的连通性框架以及WC方法进行数据分析。该分析从神经经济学的角度进行解读，考虑气候政策不确定性如何影响金融决策中的认知风险处理。

结果

研究结果表明，与其他指数相比，Sensex指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯指数等对气候政策不确定性的反应更为敏感。这些趋势表明，全球投资者的反应不仅具有战略性，还受到心理紧张和风险感知机制的影响。

结论

气候政策的不确定性对股票市场波动产生显著影响，其影响深远，不仅超出了传统经济指标的范畴，还涵盖了投资者认知和神经行为反应。当前研究结果强调将神经科学方法纳入金融决策，为投资者和政策制定者在风险管理、投资组合最大化以及解读环境不确定性下的行为反应方面提供重要反馈。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/5212776f3e86/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig12.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/5212776f3e86/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/21a7e6d8fde4/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/135bfcdad324/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/3ec6cdf44737/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/7e3a7c2f7f34/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/e76d5bafbd93/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/a5023a1b096f/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/87bc9af60139/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/092884429c27/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/67a8936058cc/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig9.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/dd31764033fc/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig10.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/5d6732d09953/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cce/12417448/5212776f3e86/10.1177_09727531251364683-fig12.jpg

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