Ghimire Dhurba, Samir K C
Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
medRxiv. 2025 Sep 5:2025.09.03.25335049. doi: 10.1101/2025.09.03.25335049.
Nepal has experienced a significant decline in fertility rates. However, notable variations persist, necessitating further analysis. This study systematically examines the determinants of fertility heterogeneity in Nepal, focusing on caste, ethnicity, religion, and related factors.
The study analysed data from six rounds of the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (1996-2022) to examine married women aged 15-49. A Poisson regression model was used to assess the relationship between various determinants and the Number of Children Ever Born (CEB).
Significant associations (p < 0.001) with CEB were identified. Women marrying at age ≥20 experienced a 25% reduction in expected CEB compared to those marrying at ≤19. Those with a met need for contraception had a 9.2% lower CEB, while urban women exhibited an 11.1% reduction compared to rural women. Muslim women had an 11.1% higher CEB, whereas Dalit and Janajati women showed lower CEB compared to Arya women. Additionally, women from poorer households had a 9.2% lower CEB, and educational attainment significantly influenced CEB, with post-secondary education linked to a 48.5% reduction in CEB.
The study reveals some level of heterogeneity in fertility rates across caste, ethnicity, and religion. It emphasises the importance of female education, family planning, and women's empowerment in reducing fertility rates and suggests that targeted government investments can address these disparities.
尼泊尔的生育率显著下降。然而，显著差异仍然存在，需要进一步分析。本研究系统地考察了尼泊尔生育率异质性的决定因素，重点关注种姓、族裔、宗教及相关因素。
该研究分析了六轮尼泊尔人口与健康调查（1996 - 2022年）的数据，以考察15 - 49岁的已婚女性。采用泊松回归模型评估各种决定因素与曾生育子女数（CEB）之间的关系。
确定了与CEB存在显著关联（p < 0.001）。与19岁及以下结婚的女性相比，20岁及以上结婚的女性预期CEB降低了25%。采取避孕措施的女性CEB降低了9.2%，而城市女性的CEB比农村女性降低了11.1%。穆斯林女性的CEB高出11.1%，而与雅利安女性相比，达利特和贾纳贾蒂女性的CEB较低。此外，贫困家庭的女性CEB降低了9.2%，受教育程度对CEB有显著影响，高等教育与CEB降低48.5%相关。
该研究揭示了种姓、族裔和宗教之间生育率存在一定程度的异质性。强调了女性教育、计划生育和妇女赋权在降低生育率方面的重要性，并表明有针对性的政府投资可以解决这些差异。
