Hakem Adnane, Mguil Wiame, Touti Imane, Alahyane Hassan, El-Mansoury Bilal, Ali Driss Ait, El Houate Brahim, Boutaayamou Idriss, El Khiat Abdelaati
Department of Mathematics and Management, Lab-SIV, Polydisciplinary Faculty-Ouarzazate, Ibnou Zohr University, Ouarzazate, Morocco.
Biological and Health Sciences Team, Higher Institute of Nursing Professions and Health Techniques, Ministry of Health, Ouarzazate, Morocco.
J Educ Health Promot. 2025 Aug 29;14:328. doi: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_2240_24. eCollection 2025.
Acute generalized peritonitis (AGP) is a life-threatening condition that demands rapid diagnosis and treatment, especially in pediatric patients. However, limited literature is available regarding its epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic aspects in under-served areas of Morocco, particularly in Southeast provinces. Therefore, this study aims to examine the epidemiological characteristics, clinical and paraclinical presentations, and management of acute generalized peritonitis (AGP) in children aged 0-15 years from 2017 to 2023 with a 2-year forecast.
This retrospective study included 115 patients with AGP. Data analysis was conducted using the Chi-square test. Furthermore, the Holt-Winters method was used to forecast the AGP cases from January 2024 to December 2025.
The majority (71.30%) were aged 8-15 years, with a male predominance (65.22%). The most frequent clinical features included fever and abdominal pain (100%) and abdominal guarding (87.83%). Appendicular peritonitis was the most common intraoperative diagnosis (86.09%). Surgical interventions included drainage (100%) and appendectomy (96.52%), with 86.09% of surgeries performed within 24 h. Postoperative complications were rare (4.35%), with septic shock (3.48%) being the most severe. Furthermore, the Holt-Winters model predicts continued variability of trend and seasonality of AGP cases in the upcoming years.
According to the results of this study, timely surgical management and effective antibiotic therapy were critical for positive outcomes. In addition, the prediction results showed a similar pattern to the actual data concluding that the proposed model can be used to forecast the future cases of AGP in this area.
急性弥漫性腹膜炎（AGP）是一种危及生命的疾病，需要快速诊断和治疗，尤其是在儿科患者中。然而，关于摩洛哥服务不足地区，特别是东南部省份其流行病学、临床和治疗方面的文献有限。因此，本研究旨在调查2017年至2023年期间0至15岁儿童急性弥漫性腹膜炎（AGP）的流行病学特征、临床和辅助检查表现以及治疗情况，并进行为期两年的预测。
这项回顾性研究纳入了115例AGP患者。使用卡方检验进行数据分析。此外，采用霍尔特-温特斯方法预测2024年1月至2025年12月的AGP病例。
大多数患者（71.30%）年龄在8至15岁之间，男性占主导（65.22%）。最常见的临床特征包括发热和腹痛（100%）以及腹部压痛（87.83%）。阑尾性腹膜炎是最常见的术中诊断（86.09%）。手术干预包括引流（100%）和阑尾切除术（96.52%），86.09%的手术在24小时内完成。术后并发症很少见（4.35%），感染性休克（3.48%）是最严重的并发症。此外，霍尔特-温特斯模型预测未来几年AGP病例的趋势和季节性将持续变化。
根据本研究结果，及时的手术治疗和有效的抗生素治疗对于取得良好预后至关重要。此外，预测结果与实际数据显示出相似的模式，表明所提出的模型可用于预测该地区未来的AGP病例。
