Siani R, Garzotto N, Tansella C Z, Tansella M
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1979 Jan;59(1):17-23. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1979.tb06942.x.
A six-item predictive scale for parasuicide repetition was retested on a second sample of Italian parasuicides. All the patients firstever admitted after a deliberate self-harm to the psychiatric department of a general hospital during the period April 1973-March 1976 were interviewed and followed-up after an interval of 1 year. The scale showed the same predictive power found in the first sample (1970-73) and gave a range of probability of repetition within 1 year of 15% at a score of 0 up to 44.8% at the scores 3, 4, 5, and 6. Moreover it discriminated between repeaters and non-repeaters at a significant level. Only two items (diagnosis of sociopathy and change of domicile in the last year) of the five items which discriminated repeaters from non-repeaters in the first study were still significantly associated with repetition, while four additional items (previous in-patient psychiatric treatment; previous parasuicide resulting in hospital admission; unemployment; criminal record) appeared as new discriminating factors. In spite of these changes the rate of repetition remained constant over the years at around 26%.
一个用于预测自杀未遂复发的六项量表在意大利自杀未遂患者的第二个样本上进行了重新测试。对1973年4月至1976年3月期间因故意自残首次入住综合医院精神科的所有患者进行了访谈，并在间隔1年后进行了随访。该量表显示出与第一个样本（1970 - 73年）相同的预测能力，得分0分时1年内复发概率范围为15%，得分3、4、5和6分时复发概率高达44.8%。此外，它在区分复发者和未复发者方面达到了显著水平。在第一项研究中区分复发者和未复发者的五个项目中，只有两个项目（反社会人格障碍诊断和去年住所变更）仍与复发显著相关，而另外四个项目（既往住院精神科治疗；既往因自杀未遂导致住院；失业；犯罪记录）成为新的区分因素。尽管有这些变化，但多年来复发率一直保持在26%左右。
