Application of Bayes's theorem to results of quantitative clinical chemical determinations.

The diagnostic implication of a certain test result with regard to a certain condition can be expressed as a single number, L, the likelihood ratio of this result. This ratio allows Bayes's theorem to be written in a convenient form. We show that the practice of calculating predictive values for the results of quantitative tests by use of discrimination limits leads to incorrect predictive values. Including L values in laboratory reports seems a more logical approach to optimum interpretation of laboratory results than the use of discrimination values.