Traver G A, Cline M G, Burrows B
Am Rev Respir Dis. 1979 Jun;119(6):895-902. doi: 10.1164/arrd.1979.119.6.895.
The relative usefulness of various initial findings in predicting survival is reported for 200 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who have been followed for approximately 15 years. After 5 years of follow-up, subjects 62 or more years of age showed a poorer survival rate than younger subjects. After controlling for age, the per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 sec after administration of bronchodilator was the best indicator of prognosis. In subjects less than 65 years of age, the presence or absence of cor pulmonale further improved the prediction of subsequent mortality. Regardless of initial findings, however, there was wide individual variability in prognosis, and factors relating to this variability remain obscure. No difference in survival rate was noted between the 178 male patients who were enrolled in Chicago 15 years ago and the 100 similarly impaired men enrolled in Tucson approximately 7 years ago.
报告了对200例慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者进行约15年随访后，各种初始检查结果在预测生存率方面的相对有用性。随访5年后，62岁及以上的受试者生存率低于年轻受试者。在控制年龄后，使用支气管扩张剂后1秒用力呼气量的预测百分比是预后的最佳指标。在65岁以下的受试者中，肺心病的有无进一步改善了对后续死亡率的预测。然而，无论初始检查结果如何，预后存在很大的个体差异，与这种差异相关的因素仍不清楚。15年前在芝加哥入组的178名男性患者与约7年前在图森入组的100名情况类似的男性患者之间，生存率没有差异。
