Rosenwaike I
Demography. 1979 May;16(2):279-88.
Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the "method of extinct generations," which permits the reconstruction of "extinct" population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.
高龄人群的人口和死亡率数据通常被认为在很大程度上存在误差，尤其是非白人的数据。在本研究中，通过一种称为“灭绝世代法”的程序得出了1960年美国85岁及以上人口的估计数，该程序允许根据一系列年度死亡统计数据重建“灭绝”的人口队列。将按单一年龄划分的总人口估计数以及按五岁年龄组划分的性别-肤色群体估计数与1960年的人口普查数据进行了比较。除了一些例外情况，白人的数据显示出显著的一致性；从死亡记录得出的非白人统计数字远低于人口普查数字，这表明后者来源中的年龄高估情况更为严重。
