Rosenwaike I
Demography. 1981 May;18(2):257-66.
This note reports on the utilization of the "extinct generation" method, a procedure that permits a reconstruction of "extinct" population cohorts from the death statistics for a series of years and provides alternative estimates of the mortality of the extreme aged population (persons 85 years of age and over) in the United States during the period 1951-1965. Remarkably close correspondence was found between the annual mortality rates thus derived and figures published by the National Center for Health Statistics. It was concluded that the quality of the mortality rates produced was superior to the official figures but not markedly so. An advantage of the method is the ability to produce rates in detail, such as for five-year age groups, not ordinarily published for the 85 and over population.
本笔记报告了“灭绝世代”方法的应用情况。该方法可根据一系列年份的死亡统计数据重建“已灭绝”的人口队列，并为1951年至1965年期间美国高龄人口（85岁及以上）的死亡率提供替代估计值。结果发现，由此得出的年死亡率与美国国家卫生统计中心公布的数据极为接近。得出的结论是，所产生的死亡率质量优于官方数据，但优势并不明显。该方法的一个优点是能够详细得出死亡率，例如按五岁年龄组划分，而官方通常不会公布85岁及以上人口的此类数据。
