Koplan J P
JAMA. 1979 Dec 7;242(23):2578-9.
When a person dies of cardiovascular causes during recreational running, the public frequently assumes the exercise caused the death. For a statistical perspective, the number of cardiovascular deaths while running that occurs by chance alone is estimated. If white male runners resemble marathoners, being nonsmokers and at lowest lean weight, four deaths from cardiovascular disease would occur per year while running 20 minutes, three times per week and 30 deaths per year if the two hours after running are considered as a running-associated period. However, if runners resemble the white male population, then 15 deaths would occur from cardiovascular disease per year while running and 104 during the associated period. Thus, four to 104 cardiovascular deaths per year are predicted on a purely temporal basis in white men while running.
当一个人在休闲跑步时死于心血管疾病，公众常常认为是运动导致了死亡。从统计学角度来看，仅偶然发生的跑步时心血管死亡人数是可以估算的。如果白人男性跑步者类似马拉松运动员，即不吸烟且体重最轻，那么每周跑三次、每次20分钟的情况下，每年跑步时会有4例心血管疾病死亡；如果将跑步后的两小时视为与跑步相关的时间段，那么每年会有30例。然而，如果跑步者类似白人男性总体情况，那么每年跑步时会有15例心血管疾病死亡，在相关时间段则有104例。因此，仅从时间角度预测，白人男性跑步时每年会有4至104例心血管死亡。
