Poisvert M
Anesth Analg (Paris). 1979;36(9-10):485-9.
The economists analyse the facts of our everyday--or professional life to insert management--or anticipation rules from them. The progress of innovations and their obsolescence fall within these studies. Recent works have shown that the spreading of innovations in the medical fields was practically identical to that in the industrial field, and that its function in relation to time was written under the form of: P = K divided by 1 + e-(a+bt) P representing the proportion of departments which adopted an innovation at the time t, K representing the proportion of those which will adopt this innovation (a and b are constants). The derivated coefficient in relation to t, that is to say the variation of the proportion of departments adopting innovations in relation to time, measures the speed of diffusion of this innovation (Louise B. Russel, 1977). But can this equation be applied in the field of health, to organisational innovations as well as to those which have a material, therefore industrial support? On the other hand do techniques and equipments become obsolete simultaneously? Finally does the public or the private hospital slow down or speed up the appearance of innovations and their obsolescence? Such are the problems we will endeavour to set... before being able to solve them.
经济学家分析我们日常生活或职业生涯中的事实，从中归纳出管理规则或预测规则。创新的发展及其过时都在这些研究范围内。近期的研究表明，创新在医学领域的传播与在工业领域的传播几乎相同，并且其与时间的关系函数形式为：P = K / (1 + e^-(a + bt))，其中P表示在时间t采用创新的部门比例，K表示最终会采用该创新的部门比例（a和b为常数）。关于t的导数系数，即采用创新的部门比例随时间的变化，衡量了该创新的传播速度（路易丝·B·拉塞尔，1977年）。但是这个方程能否应用于健康领域，包括组织创新以及那些有物质支撑（即工业支撑）的创新呢？另一方面，技术和设备会同时过时吗？最后，公立医院或私立医院会减缓还是加速创新的出现及其过时呢？这些就是我们在能够解决它们之前将努力提出的问题。
