Morrill R L, Earickson R
Health Serv Res. 1969 Summer;4(2):128-41.
An experimental simulation model is described by which imbalances in the distribution of hospitals may be evaluated and location shifts suggested to meet future needs. The model, partly deterministic and partly probabilistic, is here used to project the effects on patient travel of shifting capacity and of shifting demand. Applied to the metropolitan Chicago hospital system, the model results indicate that relocation of hospital beds would considerably decrease patient travel, but that the same improvement in patient travel and in hospital utilization could be achieved, with a far less radical and costly shift of beds, by relaxing existing constraints of income and race.
本文描述了一个实验模拟模型，通过该模型可以评估医院分布的不均衡情况，并提出位置转移建议以满足未来需求。该模型部分为确定性模型，部分为概率性模型，在此用于预测转移容量和转移需求对患者就医行程的影响。应用于芝加哥大都市医院系统时，模型结果表明，病床的重新安置将大幅减少患者就医行程，但通过放宽现有的收入和种族限制，以远不那么激进和昂贵的病床转移方式，也可以实现患者就医行程和医院利用率的相同改善。
