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性病建模导论

Introduction to the modelling of venereal disease.

作者信息

Bailey N T

出版信息

J Math Biol. 1979 Oct;8(3):301-22. doi: 10.1007/BF00276315.

Abstract

The continually rising trend in the incidence of venereal diseases, especially gonorrhoea, in a large number of countries, both developed and developing is causing considerable public health concern. There is a disquieting volume of human suffering involved, as well as large economic losses in treatment and hospitalization. The present paper reviews the existing state of development in the mathematical modelling of the relevant disease dynamics. The 'criss-cross' nature of the infections, which in heterosexual contacts switch between the male and female populations, together with the nonlinear form of the rate of spread normally occurring in infectious diseases, leads to special types of simultaneous nonlinear differential equations.

摘要

在许多发达国家和发展中国家,性病尤其是淋病的发病率持续上升,这引起了相当大的公共卫生关注。其中涉及令人不安的大量人类痛苦,以及治疗和住院方面的巨大经济损失。本文综述了相关疾病动态数学建模的现有发展状况。感染的“交叉”性质,即在异性接触中在男性和女性人群之间转换,以及传染病中通常出现的非线性传播率形式,导致了特殊类型的联立非线性微分方程。

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