Archer P G
Am J Clin Pathol. 1978 Jan;69(1):32-5. doi: 10.1093/ajcp/69.1.32.
Bayes' formula is being used with increasing frequency to calculate predictive values for positive and negative clinical laboratory test results. Because of its nonlinear form, however, it is difficult to visualize how changes in the test characteristics or disease prevalence will effect predictive values. This paper shows that Bayes' formula is transformed to a linear function through the use of odds, rather than probabilities, thus facilitating conceptualization, understanding, and memory.
贝叶斯公式在计算临床实验室检测结果阳性和阴性预测值方面的应用频率越来越高。然而，由于其非线性形式，很难直观地看出检测特征或疾病患病率的变化将如何影响预测值。本文表明，通过使用比值而非概率，贝叶斯公式可转化为线性函数，从而便于概念化、理解和记忆。
