Alpha-fetoprotein screening for open spina bifida: effect of routine biparietal diameter measurement to estimate gestational age.

The estimation of gestational age by "dates" (time since the first day of the last menstrual period) and by means of an ultrasound scan examination (measurement of fetal biparietal diameter) lead to different results when screening for open spina bifida by maternal serum alphafetoprotein (A.F.P.) measurement. This paper provides estimates of the detection rate for open spina bifida, the false positive rate, and the odds of being affected given a positive A.F.P. result when gestational age is estimated according to the two methods. Estimates are also given on the odds of being affected for individuals with a particular serum A.F.P. result. The estimates may be useful to those concerned with the development and design of screening programmes for open spina bifida as well as to clinicians concerned with providing risk estimates for individual patients.