Stevens R G, Lee J A
Am J Epidemiol. 1978 Feb;107(2):120-6. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112514.
Mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis in the United States was analyzed by cohort. The introduction of effective chemotherapy necessarily renders models based on generation differences alone inappropriate in this disease. However, such models continue to be used. The data show major departures from the prediction of a generation based model during the 1950's. Projection of the 1941 rates and cohort slopes to 1970 using a generation model predicts 358,000 more deaths than were actually certified. The departure was smaller for blacks than for whites, and differences in delivery of treatment probably account for this. Projections of mortality need to be made for the planning of control measures. However, such projections must be done with the understanding that inter-cohort differences can be altered during adult life.
美国通过队列研究分析了肺结核死亡率。有效化疗方法的引入必然使得仅基于代际差异的模型不适用于该疾病。然而，此类模型仍在被使用。数据显示，在20世纪50年代，实际情况与基于代际的模型预测有很大偏差。使用代际模型将1941年的发病率和队列斜率推算至1970年，预测的死亡人数比实际认证的多35.8万。黑人的偏差比白人小，治疗可及性的差异可能是造成这种情况的原因。为了规划控制措施，需要对死亡率进行预测。然而，进行此类预测时必须明白，队列间差异在成年期可能会发生变化。
