Tay J S, Yip W C
Pediatr Res. 1984 Apr;18(4):375-7. doi: 10.1203/00006450-198404000-00015.
The purpose of this study is to fit a mathematic function to the observed risk figures for Down's syndrome at various maternal ages. Data from the New York State and Swedish studies were used. It was found that the estimated risks fitted the exponential relationship very well, with a correlation coefficient of over 0.94. An even better correlation was found (over 0.97) for each 5-yr period in the New York State study. The exponential relationship was given by: I = aebx, where 1/I is the estimated risk; x, the maternal age in years; and a and b, the constants. In both studies there was considerable variation in the values of a and b with maternal age as well as an excellent correlation between ln a and b for the 5-yr periods. This function may be used to test various hypotheses for the effect of maternal age in Down's syndrome.
本研究的目的是为不同母亲年龄的唐氏综合征观察风险数据拟合一个数学函数。使用了来自纽约州和瑞典研究的数据。结果发现，估计风险与指数关系拟合得非常好，相关系数超过0.94。在纽约州的研究中，每5年期间发现了更好的相关性（超过0.97）。指数关系由下式给出：I = aebx，其中1/I是估计风险；x是母亲年龄（以年为单位）；a和b是常数。在两项研究中，a和b的值随母亲年龄有相当大的变化，并且在5年期间ln a和b之间有极好的相关性。该函数可用于检验关于母亲年龄对唐氏综合征影响的各种假设。
