Choi K, Thacker S B
Am J Epidemiol. 1981 Mar;113(3):215-26. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113090.
Proposed in this paper is a new method of forecasting the expected number of pneumonia and influenza deaths based on a time series analysis of the historical mortality data. Currently, the method for forecasting the expected pneumonia and influenza deaths used by the Center for Disease Control is based on regression analysis. These forecasts are used to estimate the excess deaths attributable to pneumonia and influenza. Careful comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed method provides a more accurate forecast of pneumonia and influenza mortality than the existing method.
本文提出了一种基于历史死亡率数据的时间序列分析来预测肺炎和流感死亡预期人数的新方法。目前，疾病控制中心用于预测肺炎和流感死亡预期人数的方法是基于回归分析。这些预测用于估计由肺炎和流感导致的超额死亡人数。仔细的对比分析表明，所提出的方法比现有方法能更准确地预测肺炎和流感死亡率。
