Nash C H, Jones S E, Moon T E, Davis S L, Salmon S E
Cancer. 1980 Dec 1;46(11):2380-8. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19801201)46:11<2380::aid-cncr2820461113>3.0.co;2-m.
Univariate and multivariate regression methods were used to analyze 17 potential clinical prognostic factors among 138 patients with advanced breast cancer who received Adriamycin-cyclophosphamide combination chemotherapy between 1973 and 1977 at the University of Arizona. Follow-up of patients was through September 1979, and survival data were nearly complete. Different factors varied in the relationship to outcome, but age, treatment, and response were important. Selecting the three most strongly related factors, predictive regression equations were developed, which described three types of possible outcome: 1) objective response (age, treatment, and liver involvement), 2) freedom from relapse (age, lung involvement, and response), and 3) survival (age, the number of involved sites [less than or equal to 2 or > 2], and treatment). Since use of the regression equations is cumbersome for clinical practice, three simplified tables were constructed to readily predict response, duration of response, and survival before the initiation of treatment.
1973年至1977年期间，138例晚期乳腺癌患者在亚利桑那大学接受了阿霉素-环磷酰胺联合化疗，采用单因素和多因素回归方法分析了17个潜在的临床预后因素。对患者的随访至1979年9月，生存数据几乎完整。不同因素与预后的关系各不相同，但年龄、治疗和反应是重要因素。选择三个相关性最强的因素，建立了预测回归方程，描述了三种可能的预后类型：1）客观反应（年龄、治疗和肝转移），2）无复发（年龄、肺转移和反应），3）生存（年龄、受累部位数量[小于或等于2个或大于2个]和治疗）。由于回归方程在临床实践中使用不便，构建了三个简化表格，以便在治疗开始前轻松预测反应、反应持续时间和生存情况。
