Christensen-Szalanski J J, Bushyhead J B
J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform. 1981 Aug;7(4):928-35. doi: 10.1037//0096-1523.7.4.928.
This study reports on physicians' processing of probabilistic information while they were treating possible pneumonia patients at an outpatient clinic. Physicians overestimated the patients' probability of pneumonia but were sensitive to relative differences in the predictive value of symptoms when present and absent, and appeared to use base-rate information correctly when making clinical judgments.
本研究报告了医生在门诊治疗疑似肺炎患者时对概率信息的处理情况。医生高估了患者患肺炎的概率，但对症状存在和不存在时预测价值的相对差异较为敏感，并且在做出临床判断时似乎正确使用了基础概率信息。
