Salonen J T, Alfthan G, Huttunen J K, Puska P
Am J Epidemiol. 1984 Sep;120(3):342-9. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113898.
A matched-pair analysis was conducted with data based on a prospective six-year follow-up of a random population sample to study the association between serum selenium and the risk of cancer. Case-control pairs were from a population, after exclusions, of 8,113 persons examined in 1972 from two counties in eastern Finland. Cases were 31- to 59-year-old men and women initially free of cancer. One control was matched to each case according to age, gender, daily tobacco consumption, and serum cholesterol concentration. The mean serum selenium of the 128 cases was 50.5 micrograms/liter and that of the controls was 54.3 micrograms/liter (p = 0.012 for difference). When the residual variation in tobacco consumption and serum cholesterol as well as that in four other possible confounders was allowed for in a multiple logistic model, serum selenium of less than 45 micrograms/liter was associated with a relative risk of cancer of 3.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-6.7, p less than 0.01). These data support the hypothesis that selenium deficiency increases the risk of certain cancers in middle-aged persons.
基于对随机抽取的人群样本进行的为期六年的前瞻性随访数据，开展了一项配对分析，以研究血清硒与癌症风险之间的关联。病例对照对来自芬兰东部两个县在1972年接受检查的8113人，排除部分个体后组成。病例为31至59岁、最初无癌症的男性和女性。根据年龄、性别、每日烟草消费量和血清胆固醇浓度，为每个病例匹配一名对照。128例病例的血清硒平均水平为50.5微克/升，对照的血清硒平均水平为54.3微克/升（差异p = 0.012）。当在多因素逻辑模型中考虑烟草消费量和血清胆固醇以及其他四个可能的混杂因素的残余变异时，血清硒低于45微克/升与癌症相对风险3.1相关（95%置信区间，1.5 - 6.7，p < 0.01）。这些数据支持了硒缺乏会增加中年人患某些癌症风险这一假设。
