Trussell J, Pebley A R
Stud Fam Plann. 1984 Nov-Dec;15(6 Pt 1):267-80.
In this paper we explore the relation between changes in reproductive behavior, such as those that might result from an effective family planning program in developing countries, and changes in child and maternal mortality. Specifically, we use the results from recent multivariate studies to estimate the changes in mortality that might result from altering maternal age, birth order, and birth spacing distributions of live births. Our results indicate that if childbearing were confined to the "prime" reproductive ages of 20-34, then infant and child mortality rates would fall by about 5 percent. Limiting childbearing to ages 20-39 may also reduce the maternal mortality ratio by 11 percent. The elimination of fourth and higher order births would reduce the maternal mortality ratio by about 4 percent. Universal adoption of an "ideal" spacing pattern in which all births subsequent to the first are spaced at least two years apart may reduce infant mortality by about 10 percent and child mortality by about 21 percent.
在本文中，我们探讨了生殖行为变化（如发展中国家有效计划生育项目可能带来的变化）与儿童及孕产妇死亡率变化之间的关系。具体而言，我们利用近期多变量研究的结果，来估计因改变活产的产妇年龄、生育顺序和生育间隔分布而可能导致的死亡率变化。我们的结果表明，如果生育仅限于20至34岁的“最佳”生育年龄，那么婴儿和儿童死亡率将下降约5%。将生育限制在20至39岁也可能使孕产妇死亡率降低11%。消除四胎及以上生育可使孕产妇死亡率降低约4%。普遍采用“理想”的生育间隔模式，即头胎之后的所有生育间隔至少两年，可能使婴儿死亡率降低约10%，儿童死亡率降低约21%。
