Epstein F H
Ann Clin Res. 1984;16 Suppl 43:32-4.
A hypothetical model for predicting hypertension is discussed. Assuming that being in the top quintiles of the blood pressure distribution at adolescence and/or having a family history of hypertension, the estimated risk for developing hypertension as an adult could be 37% in a population with a prevalence of hypertension on 20%. Using the blood pressure level in adolescence and/or positive family history of hypertension as a predictive "test", the sensitivity of this "test" is 65% and the specificity 73%.
本文讨论了一种预测高血压的假设模型。假设在青春期处于血压分布最高五分位数和/或有高血压家族史，在高血压患病率为20%的人群中，成年后患高血压的估计风险可能为37%。以青春期血压水平和/或高血压家族史阳性作为预测“测试”，该“测试”的敏感性为65%，特异性为73%。
