Raup D M, Valentine J W
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1983 May;80(10):2981-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.80.10.2981.
There is some indication that life may have originated readily under primitive earth conditions. If there were multiple origins of life, the result could have been a polyphyletic biota today. Using simple stochastic models for diversification and extinction, we conclude: (i) the probability of survival of life is low unless there are multiple origins, and (ii) given survival of life and given as many as 10 independent origins of life, the odds are that all but one would have gone extinct, yielding the monophyletic biota we have now. The fact of the survival of our particular form of life does not imply that it was unique or superior.
有迹象表明,在原始地球条件下生命可能很容易起源。如果生命有多个起源,那么如今的生物群可能是多源的。通过使用简单的多样化和灭绝随机模型,我们得出以下结论:(i)除非有多个起源,生命存活的概率很低;(ii)假设生命存活且有多达10个独立的生命起源,那么除了一个之外,其他所有起源都可能灭绝,从而产生我们现在所拥有的单源生物群。我们这种特定生命形式得以存活这一事实并不意味着它是独特的或优越的。