Martin J H, Serow W J
Demography. 1978 May;15(2):223-33.
Studies of the relative accuracy of methods of estimating the population at the substate level have generally found that the greatest degree of accuracy is provided by the ratio-correlation, or regression, method. This paper reports on research aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of this method in estimating the age and race composition of populations at the substate level. In addition to the basic multiple regression equation variants such as stratification and the averaging of estimates from simple regression equations are also tested. Surprisingly, for Virginia localities the most satisfactory results are generated by the nonstratified multiple regression equation.
对州以下各级人口估计方法相对准确性的研究普遍发现，比率相关法或回归法的准确性最高。本文报告了一项旨在评估该方法在估计州以下各级人口年龄和种族构成方面有效性的研究。除了基本的多元回归方程变体（如分层）外，还测试了简单回归方程估计值的平均法。令人惊讶的是，对于弗吉尼亚州的各个地区，非分层多元回归方程产生了最令人满意的结果。
