Härdle W, Aderjan R
Z Rechtsmed. 1983;91(1):1-15. doi: 10.1007/BF01882443.
The clarification of a suspicion of poisoning at all times poses a problem to the forensic toxicologist, when a narrow margin of therapeutic safety and a low dosage coincide as in cases of digoxin poisoning. Statistical methods may serve as an aid. The post mortem digoxin concentration in the tissues of heart, kidney, liver and in blood of 45 patients who had received therapeutic daily doses and of 13 cases of fatal poisoning are compared. After logarithmic transformation of the individual concentration values a two modal distribution is obtained. There is one concentration calculated with equal probability of being classified to "therapeutic or toxic", as well as the probability of observing the "critical" concentrations of 400 ng digoxin/g cardiac tissue, 500 ng/g kidney and 250 ng/g liver after therapeutic dosing. Using the discriminant analysis each of the cases clearly falls into one of the two collectives "therapeutic" and "toxic", when taken as a separate observation. Concentration data of fatal poisonings taken from the literature are as successfully classified as the analytical results of some exhumed bodies under suspicion but not poisoned. As expected the power of discrimination increases with the number of parameters. Because of the relatively slow body distribution of digoxin the blood taken from peripheral vessels is of most important evidence.
对于法医毒理学家而言,任何时候一旦怀疑有中毒情况,就会面临一个难题,比如像地高辛中毒案例那样,治疗安全范围窄且剂量低。统计方法或许能有所帮助。对45名接受每日治疗剂量的患者以及13例致命中毒案例的心脏、肾脏、肝脏组织和血液中的死后地高辛浓度进行了比较。对各个浓度值进行对数转换后,得到了双峰分布。存在一个浓度值,将其归类为“治疗性或毒性”的概率相等,同时也有在治疗给药后观察到心脏组织中地高辛浓度为400 ng/g、肾脏中为500 ng/g以及肝脏中为250 ng/g这些“临界”浓度的概率。使用判别分析时,若将每个案例作为单独观察对象,它们都能清晰地归入“治疗性”和“毒性”这两个类别之一。从文献中获取的致命中毒案例的浓度数据,与一些疑似中毒但未中毒的挖掘尸体的分析结果一样,都能成功分类。正如预期的那样,判别能力会随着参数数量的增加而增强。由于地高辛在体内的分布相对缓慢,从外周血管采集的血液是最重要的证据。