Jonsson H, Nyman A K
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1984 Apr;69(4):274-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1984.tb02497.x.
Prediction of 5-8 year outcome from presenting symptoms and background data was attempted in a sample of 110 first-admitted schizophrenics. Correlations between outcome criteria and single predictors as well as factor analytically derived clusters of predictors were studied. A rather consistent pattern of symptom variables as well as personality and social variables was found to be predictive of outcome. 'Atypical' symptoms were associated with good prognosis while longitudinal variables indicative of 'high-risk personality', or duration and severity of illness, were related to bad prognosis. Overt psychotic symptoms usually gave no correlations with outcome. A discriminant analytical approach was also used to predict outcome from combinations of predictor variables. When all variables were used to predict a combined outcome score, a high accuracy was achieved.
在110例首次入院的精神分裂症患者样本中，尝试根据初发症状和背景数据预测5至8年的预后。研究了预后标准与单个预测因素以及通过因素分析得出的预测因素集群之间的相关性。结果发现，症状变量以及人格和社会变量的一种相当一致的模式可预测预后。“非典型”症状与良好预后相关，而表明“高危人格”的纵向变量或疾病持续时间和严重程度与不良预后相关。明显的精神病症状通常与预后无关。还采用判别分析方法根据预测变量的组合来预测预后。当使用所有变量来预测综合预后评分时，获得了较高的准确性。
